12/29/2009
EE Times
SAN JOSE, Calif. — In January 2007 Steve Jobs stole the spotlight from the crowd at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas when he announced the iPhone at MacWorld in San Francisco. Analysts say Jobs could pull a second scene stealer this year if Apple debuts an expected mobile tablet device.
A combination Apple media pad/e-book/netbook could steal much of the thunder about mobile systems expected at this year’s CES. Meanwhile, Google is said to be developing its own smartphone and smartbook products, though neither are expected to emerge at CES.
Several reports say Apple will release before April a tablet computer using a 10-inch display and costing an estimated $800, some noting Apple has purchased the rights to the iSlate.com domain name.
However, one analyst said he is expecting a smaller device that could have a bigger impact. “We believe it to be a seven-inch HDTV player that receives content from the iTunes store and fits into a big jacket pocket or purse,” said Rick Doherty, principal of market watcher Envisioneering (Seaford, NY).
The device could double as an electronic reader, fulfilling a promise Sony has made about color and video-capable versions of its e-book. “Apple may get there first,” Doherty said.
Electronic readers are a hot growth market. Amazon.com said its customers bought more e-books than physical books for the first time ever on Christmas Day, and over the weekend its Kindle reader became the most-purchased gift in the company’s history, according to a Reuters report.
Plastic Logic will announce its Que ProReader at CES, following in the footsteps of readers from Amazon, Barnes and Noble and Sony.
Doherty expects the rumored Apple system will initially support 720-progressive resolution, use Wi-Fi instead of 3G and run on an ARM processor not an x86-based chip. Such a system would play into a younger generation’s move to mobile entertainment and away from big TVs and set-top boxes, he added
“This could be a lightning bolt across the CES sky, and drive a lot of people crazy,” Doherty said. “There will be 5-, 7-, and 9-inch mobile pads shown at CES using Microsoft or Google software, but no one wants to talk prices or form factor until Apple makes its move,” he added.
Doherty believes the mobile system is the target for a custom quad-core mobile ARM processor being designed by the P.A. Semi team Apple acquired in April 2008. However he and others said it would be difficult for Apple to field a new chip and a system based on it in such a short time.
“This mobile system could perform well on single or dual arm, but the real economics of the design come in with a quad-core ARM,” Doherty said. “We think Apple will enjoy a real price and power advantage with such a chip,” he added.
“If the P.A. Semi people could produce a product for apple that fast, I’d be surprised,” said Nathan Brookwood, principal of market watcher Insight64 (Saratoga, Calif.).
A handful of ARM-based mobile CPU makers are touting $300 netbooks as an emerging product category. At least one top tier computer maker plans to show an ARM-based netbook at CES.
To date Apple executives have criticized the netbook as an underpowered laptop. However, chief operating officer Tim Cook said early this year Apple was working on some novel ideas in this space.
If Apple can pull off a combination mobile media player, e-book and netbook, it could ignite interest in a new mobile product type. “If the Apple system does a good job on media and web surfing that will go a long way,” said Brookwood.
“Whether Apple does a tablet or not, just the rumor of their doing one shows how much power Apple has in the industry since it has already caused its competitors to start crating tablets of their own for debut in 2010,” said Tim Bajarin, principal of Creative Strategies, Inc. (Campbell, Calif.).
“If Apple should release a tablet, it would need to connect to its existing eco-system of software and applications,” said Bajarin. “Just the idea of having something like an iPod Touch with a bigger screen would be a big hit within the Mac community and could actually kick start the tablet market that has been struggling for 10 years,” he added.
Indeed, Microsoft’s former chief executive Bill Gates pushed the company for years to deliver the Tablet PC which has had limited success to date. Doherty said reports of a 10-inch Apple mobile system are probably a Mac-based variant on the Tablet PC concept.
Digitimes reported that Taiwan’s Foxconn Electronics will make such a device for Apple and supply 10-inch touch screens. Other reports said the system would cost about $800 and have 3G wireless built in. Several reports said Apple has purchased the domain name iSlate.com for such a system.
Separately, unconfirmed reports say Google is developing its own netbook using its recently released Chrome OS software. One report said it will use a 10.1-inch screen, an Nvidia Tegra processor, 2 GBytes RAM and a 64 GByte solid-state drive as well as support for 3G, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and Ethernet.
Part of Google’s goal is to drive greater openness in mobile services to pave the way for its advertising and services businesses. Like a recently reported prototype Google smartphone, the search giant may be planning to sell its netbook independent of any carrier.
“It will be an uphill battle to wean people away from subsidized model,” of selling phones free with a service package, said Brookwood. “In this country, we’re addicted to free,” he said.
Nevertheless, Doherty said the Google smartphone and netbook projects are moving forward. There have been prototypes and they’ve been in discussions with almost every large ODM,” about making such systems for them, Doherty said.
