In less than 48 hours, Verizon Wireless, one of world’s largest carriers will turn on its next generation network powered by the Long Term Evolution (LTE) set of technologies. And as we enter a bold new wireless era of superfast wireless broadband, it is important to take stock of the third generation (3G) wireless technologies.

At present only 14 percent of world’s total mobile subscribers are using 3G wireless technologies. With majority of growth expected from young telecom markets such as China, India, and Brazil, the world needs to brace for mobile tsunami. Cheap smartphones with web browsers and 3G data would bring attention to apps and web-based services such as Facebook and Twitter.

How Big is Planet 3G?

According to Telegeography, a telecom research firm, there were about 694 million 3G subscribers at the end of third quarter of 2010, 14 percent of the total 5.12 billion mobile subscribers.

New research from TeleGeography shows that of the wireless total 48.6% of subscribers were located in the Asia-Pacific region, with Latin America accounting for the next largest share, at 10.7%, and Western Europe at 10.1%. The Middle East is the smallest in terms of subscribers, accounting for 279 million subscribers at the end of the third quarter, equivalent to 5.4% of the total.
At the end of second quarter of 2010, there were 4.43 billion total mobile subscribers of which a total of 535 million, or 12 percent of the total, were using 3G technologies, according to data collected by Informa Telecoms & Global Mobile Suppliers Association.

Nearly 160 million new 3G subscribers signed up during July, August and September 2010 — a shade over 50 million a month, a pretty impressive number. Much of the recent 3G growth is coming from places like China. According to GSMA, there are about 136 networks committed to using HSPA+ technologies and 81 HSPA+ networks have been launched.

Who Needs LTE, When We Got HSPA+

LTE is the next step up from HSPA+ although many carriers argue that HSPA+ in many cases will be as fast, if not faster than LTE networks, especially those are constrained by spectrum. In an interview, T-Mobile USA CTO Neville Ray gave me his reasons as to why LTE will have a slow start:

“Our competitors are launching LTE in fairly limited bandwidths of spectrum,” he pointed out. “So, 10 to 20 megahertz of LTE spectrum doesn’t give you a significant benefit in any manner, or form, from a performance perspective over and above HSPA+.” In comparison, European carriers are being more generous with the spectrum devoted to LTE.

Another big challenge, he said, is that there will be a lack of early LTE devices, and most of them are going to be either data sticks or embedded modules in tablets and portable computers. “You’re not going to see much from an LTE perspective in smart phones,” he said.
“That’s in direct contrast to what we seen from HSPA+, where we’re working off of a more mature and developed device ecosystem in HSPA,” Ray said. “It’s going to take some time before LTE will offer anything approaching the device choice that’s available in HSPA+.” That is one of the main reasons why T-Mobile USA is backing HSPA+ as its next generation wireless broadband technology.

“Subscriptions to third generation networks increased by over 40 percent in the twelve months ended 30 September 2010,” Tig Harvey, Research Director at TeleGeography, noted in a press statement. With India and rest of the emerging telecom markets looking to switch on their 3G networks in 2011, one should expect to see a big jump in the number of 3G subscribers in 2011.

Smartphones+3G+Apps=Mobile Nirvana

The 3G availability and the sales of smartphones are closely tied together. As more folks have access to low-cost smartphones, such as those powered by Google’s Android OS that are likely to come to the market in 2011. Cheaper smartphones, means many more millions will now be able to access web through their mobiles and start using services that they were unable to because of lack of personal computers. Facebook, Google and Twitter are three likely beneficiaries, at the very least. In a report, research firm, comScore wrote:

An analysis of Twitter usage via mobile for the six mobile markets currently reported by comScore (U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Spain and Italy) revealed that Twitter is gaining adoption among smartphone users. In the U.S., 8.3 percent of smartphone users (4.2 million people) accessed Twitter.com in a month via the browser on their mobile devices, outpacing each of the European markets. In Europe, 2.8 percent of smartphone users overall accessed Twitter.com (1.7 million users), with the U.K. experiencing the strongest penetration in the region at 5.8 percent, followed by Germany with 3.1 percent and France with 2.1 percent.
Facebook, too has seen the number of mobile users explode to over 200 million, thanks in part to availability of faster wireless broadband. But beyond these two web majors, one should expect a sharp increase in demand for mobile apps — an opportunity in itself for folks like Google who want to push mobile advertising. So, it might seem cool for us to get excited about LTE, one can’t forget the long term impact of 3G technologies is yet to be felt.

During tests to qualify the coverage claims made by the French mobile operators, the French telecoms regulator, Arcep, found that 3G coverage in the 900MHz band was less consistent compared with 3G offered in the 2.1GHz band.

While Arcep offered no technical explanation for this unreliability of 3G in the 900MHz band, it might provide French operators with an excuse for not meeting their 3G licence coverage requirements.

These coverage requirements–which Arcep has been recently measuring–are slightly different for Orange France, SFR and Bouygues Telecom.

As per the terms of their licence, Orange France should have been providing 3G coverage to 91 per cent of the population by the end of 2011, SFR was bound to cover 84 per cent by the end of June 2010 and 98 per cent by the end of 2011, while Bouygues Telecom was targeted to provide 75 per cent coverage by the end of 2010.

Arcep’s survey found that SFR’s coverage map complied, on the whole, with the licence stipulations, with the company providing 3G coverage to 84 per cent of the population as of the end of June 2010.

However, this level of 3G reception was below the 87 per cent figure published by SFR in a press release dated July 2010, and significantly below the 99.3 per cent coverage that the company originally committed to achieving by August 2009.

French operators are not alone in bending the rules on coverage charts, with UK service providers also being accused of exaggerating their 3G reception areas. However, with the entry of Free Mobile–the 4th French 3G operator expected sometime next year–operators are expected to ramp up their infrastructure investments to make coverage a marketing differentiator over Free’s expected low pricing plans.

GENEVA (AFP) – Superfast third generation (3G) mobile phone networks have expanded nearly tenfold in four years, outstripping fixed line broadband, the UN’s telecoms agency said on Wednesday.

The International Telecommunications Union predicted that 3G — which allows users to watch TV and access the Internet from their phones — would exceed 900 million subscriptions worldwide by the end of this year as the pace of expansion continued to accelerate.

At the beginning of 2010, 3G capacity could accomodate 667 million subscriptions worldwide, compared to 73 million four years earlier, the ITU said in a statistics survey.

“While these aren’t all necessarily active subscriptions, the growing number highlights the vast potential wireless technologies hold,” it added.

“ITU has set a clear target by recommending that at least half the world’s people have access to broadband by 2015.”

Over the same period, global fixed line broadband subscriptions rose from 216 million to 479 million.

Third generation now accounts for 14 percent of all mobile telecoms subscriptions compared to three percent in 2006.

But poor nations appear to be left out, as penetration rates for fixed or mobile broadband remain very low in developing countries, just above three percent of inhabitants, according to the ITU.

The fixed broadband figure is barely higher than the agency’s estimate three years ago.

“Tremendous achievements have been made over the past five years in bringing broadband access to millions of people around the world — but much more needs to be done,” the ITU said.

BANGKOK—Thailand’s Supreme Administrative Court said it will decide Thursday on an appeal filed by the country’s telecommunications regulator challenging an injunction against a long-delayed auction of third-generation mobile licenses that was scheduled to kick off Monday.

The Central Administrative Court late Thursday issued an unexpected injunction against the auction, after state-owned operators challenged the legitimacy of the National Telecommunications Commission to allocate the 2.1-gigahertz frequency spectrum used for 3G services, pending the commissioning of a new regulator.

The long-delayed 3G service license auction has made Thailand among the last countries in Southeast Asia to fully deploy advanced wireless technology. The process has repeatedly been delayed due mainly to the absence of an independent body to regulate broadcasting frequencies, as well as changes in state administrations.

“If the court on Thursday decides to overturn the injunction, then we can resume the auction and get it started within two days. But if the court decides to keep the injunction, then it means we’ll have to scrap the auction altogether,” NTC Commissioner Natee Sukonrat told a news briefing.

The 11th-hour decision by the Central Administrative Court means the much-awaited licensing will be put on hold and there is no clear timeframe in sight on when Thailand will be able to fully adopt 3G.

Many analysts have downgraded Thailand’s telecom sector following the injunction as they expect the licensing process to be delayed by a few years.

The Central Administrative Court issued the injunction after state-owned CAT Telecom alleged the NTC has no authority to grant the frequencies to successful bidders. CAT also argued that parts of the regulations related to the licensing will create “unfair” competition and cause state agencies to lose revenue.

Another state-owned company, TOT PCL, filed a separate complaint to the Central Administrative Court on Friday, seeking to block the planned auction of 3G licenses, saying the NTC doesn’t have the legitimacy to allocate the frequencies.

CAT and TOT, both of which are former regulators, stand to lose enormous concession revenues should private companies acquire 3G licenses and migrate their customers to the new technology.

The current constitution states that a new independent regulator, the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission, must be set up to govern the telecommunications and broadcasting business but a draft bill facilitating its establishment is still under parliamentary process. As such, it remains unclear if NTC, the existing telecom regulator, is eligible to allocate the frequency spectrum.

“In order to wait for this new law to be passed and the new regulatory body to be established, it would take at least two to three years until we can see the 3G licenses auctioning process reach the point where we are right now,” said Torpong Selanon, a member of the NTC’s committee responsible for the 3G licensing.

At present, private mobile-phone companies in Thailand operate second-generation mobile phone services under concessions granted by either TOT or CAT Telecom that require revenue sharing of around 20%-30% with the state companies. The winning 3G licensees will require to pay an annual fee of only 6% of their revenues.

Units of Advanced Info Service PCL, Total Access Communication PCL and True Corp. PCL were each bidding for the 3G wireless spectrum, with a starting price set at 12.8 billion baht ($416.3 million).

“It’s hard to predict the court’s decision. But considering the circumstance, it seems more likely that the court will continue to freeze the auction process until the legal issues in question become clearer,” said a telecom analyst.

Domestic shipments of 3G handsets in China are expected to amount to 42.97 million units in 2010, up from 7.2 million in 2009, according to iSuppli. The research firm attributed the significant growth to aggressive subsidies from wireless carriers.

These subsidies, which make pricing of the 3G cell phones more attractive to consumers, are expected to drive up sales despite the lack of value-added data services for the TD-SCDMA air standard, iSuppli said.

“Chinese carriers plan to provide more than 50 billion yuan, or US$7.3 billion, worth of subsidies to promote the domestic 3G handset market in 2010,” said Kevin Wang, director of China research at iSuppli. “Because of particularly strong subsidies, phones using the TD-SCDMA air standard that is backed by the Chinese government will generate the bulk of growth in 2010.”

Domestic shipments of TD-SCDMA phones in China will rise to 20.4 million units in 2010, up from 1.3 million in 2009, according to Wang.

iSuppli believes that over the next five years, ongoing voice service fee reductions and declines in ASPs for handsets will assure the continued growth of China’s mobile subscribers – an immense base that topped 727 million at the end of 2009, following the addition of 108 million new users during the year. By the end of 2014, iSuppli forecasts that Chinese wireless subscribers will grow to 1.1 billion people, with 3G subscribers to reach 230 million.

Driven by carriers’ subsidies, newly added user and replacement demand, iSuppli estimated that domestic handset shipments will increase to 266 million units in 2010, up 11% from 2009. Besides 3G handsets, smartphones will be one of the hottest products in 2010.

To promote 3G data services, operators are building a new ecosystem leveraging mobile application stores and smart phones. To this end, China Mobile joined efforts with handset makers to develop an Android-based TD-SCDMA smartphone named Ophone – a move matched by international companies such as Samsung, LG and Motorola, which also introduced their own OPhones. Entering the fray is Nokia, which iSuppli expects will introduce its TD-SCDMA handset in the first half of 2010.

A popular feature for handsets in 2010 will be mobile TV, with China expected to adopt its home-grown mobile TV standard – known as CMMB. More than 230 cities had CMMB signals in China by the end of 2009. And to support TD-SDCMA, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is not allowing the CMMB mobile TV feature on other mobile-phone air standards.

In addition, a mobile TV service fee for three years of 300 yuan has been announced by CMMB operator China Broadcasting Corporation.

Aside from mobile TV, iSuppli believes that Wi-Fi, GPS and NFC will become popular new features for handsets in 2010.

The new Apple iPad will have a 3G connection, but U.S. consumers won’t necessarily get to shop carriers to pick the best deal on bandwidth.

Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs made mention of the fact that the GSM-based device is “unlocked” at its launch in San Francisco Wednesday. In theory, this means that users should be able to switch to another GSM carrier if they prefer the service. In practice, however, users are actually stuck with a single carrier choice if they want the best wireless performance: AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T).

The problem is that the radio technology in the iPad — like the latest iPhone — doesn’t support the way that the other major GSM carrier in the U.S., T-Mobile USA , offers 3G. T-Mobile uses 2100MHz for downlink and 1700MHz for uplink. The 3G radio in the forthcoming iPad won’t support the T-Mobile uplink frequency, according to the technical specifications from Apple.

Consumers could potentially use the slower T-Mobile EDGE network and default to WiFi for heavy-duty downloads but the operator isn’t even confirming if it will support this yet. “This is actually a question for Apple, as it’s their product,” a T-Mobile spokeswoman told Unstrung.

It seems even less likely that Apple will deliver a CDMA-compatible version that will work on Verizon Wireless ’s network. “I don’t think they’re doing one,” a Verizon spokesman said on Wednesday.

Back to AT&T
So consumers can run the “unlocked” iPad on any 3G network they like as long as it’s AT&T.

3G-enabled versions of the tablet start at $729 and the prepaid monthly data plan is either $14.99 for 250MBs worth of downloads or $29.99 for unlimited downloads. [Ed note: Unstrung has asked AT&T if there is any maximum download cap on the unlimited plan. No reply yet.] The device isn’t subsidized, and AT&T has no revenue-sharing agreement in place on the data plans this time, unlike the original iPhone.

“I think the economics will be very positive,” AT&T CFO Rick Lindner said of the iPad on the operator’s fourth-quarter conference call Thursday morning.

There have already been questions about how well a major new broadband device will perform on AT&T’s 3G network. The company admitted last year that it has already been over-stretched by 3G traffic in NYC and San Francisco. (See Will the Apple iPad Crush 3G Networks?)

AT&T, however, believes that the usage model for an iPad will be a bit different, somewhere between a laptop and a smartphone. This means more connections in the home or office, where the traffic can be off-loaded to WiFi, rather than on-the-move connectivity patterns like the iPhone.

AT&T has been steadily ramping up its WiFi hotspot network since it bought Wayport in December 2008. AT&T reported Wednesday that its customers made 85.5 million connections to the Internet in 2009 using AT&T’s WiFi network, four times the number of WiFi connections made in 2008. (See 85M AT&T WiFi Connections.)

Nonetheless, AT&T is still planning to spend big bucks on its 3G network in 2010, even if iPad users do turn out to be big WiFi fans. The company still added 3.1 million iPhone users in the fourth quarter and is launching a range of Android phones in 2010. The operator said that it will spend an additional $2 billion deploying and upgrading wireless in 2010, making its projected capex spend between $18 billion and $19 billion. (See AT&T to Spend $2B More on Wireless in 2010.)

SHENZHEN, Dec 15, 2009 (SinoCast Daily Business Beat via COMTEX) — QCOM — Patterning sixteen Chinese partners such as Huawei Technologies and ZTE, Qualcomm staged a partner conference in China on December 4, during which Qualcomm president disclosed that the company derived 23% of its total sales from China last year, adding that with telecom operators there setting in motion the 3G market in full sail, China is likely to be the most important market of Qualcomm globally.
A recent iSuppli report indicates that China’s 3G users are expected to top 100 million by 2013 with China Unicom (SHSE: 600050) and China Telecom (SEHK: 0728, NYSE: CHA) to see significant gains in 3G subscribers.

The 3G technologies adopted by the two carriers, especially China Telecom’s CDMA2000, are both based on Qualcomm’s CDMA.

The avowed goal of the Chinese government is to spend as much as CNY 1 trillion on 3G in the coming three years, according to Zhao Bo, vice governor at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MII).

Chinese telecom carriers’ upcoming, vast investments in 3G have Qualcomm and its peers holding much hope for China. The number of local partners of Qualcomm in the third largest economy has almost doubled since the issue of the 3C licenses.

Qualcomm has leaped to the sixth place this year from the eighth in 2008 in the global semiconductor market. And it has topped the list of the major wireless semiconductor suppliers.

By research firm BDA’s estimations, WCDMA and CDMA EVDO users are likely to make up 40% of the total mobile phone subscribers in the world in five years ahead. And shipment of 3G handsets will outpace that of 2G next year. By 2013, the global 3G handset shipment will hit 1 billion.

The skyrocketing users and fast prevalence of 3G networks will continue weighing on terminal prices. An executive from Qualcomm notes that there will be 3G handsets priced below USD 30 for the emerging markets. On top of that, to further press down the price, Qualcomm is seeking to offer carriers its BREW operating system for free.

To meet the surging demand from users for multimedia, Qualcomm has done a lot of experiments. One of them is to bake several modems into one chip to cover networks of 2G, 3G, and even 4G. It has also been trying to add more functions such as video player and power management directly to 3G chips.

In 1990 Qualcomm began the design of the first CDMA-based cellular base station, based upon calculations derived from the CDMA-based OmniTRACS satellite system.

At the “Qualcomm China Partner Conference and Innovation Showcase” held this morning, Cristiano Amon, Senior Vice President of Qualcomm CDMA Technologies, said, “With the development of the Chinese 3G industry, the global communications market has begun to take a favorable turn. Qualcomm predicts that the global 3G handset shipments will surpass 2G handset shipments in 2010 for the first time, which will become a turning point for the telecom industry.” Mr. Amon said, “Smartphones will account for more and more of the global handset shipments, and most of them will support 3G. The data released by different market survey firms show that the percentage of 3G handsets shipments will become higher and higher, relative to total handset shipments, and we believe that global 3G handset shipments will equal non-3G handset shipments in late 2009 or early 2010.”

Qualcomm has started providing wireless chipsets that combine 3G and 4G wireless technology.

The cunning plan is to help carriers transition to the next generation of wireless technology. While many carriers around the world plan to upgrade their networks to 4G using LTE, 4G signals will not be available everywhere and punters will need to roam on 3G networks.

Huawei Technologies, LG Electronics Novatel Wireless, Sierra Wireless, and ZTE have been named as testing the new chips, which will be in the shops in the second half of 2010.

Each chip allows wireless phones and other portable devices to switch between a 4G wireless network using LTE and HSPA Plus, a 3G wireless technology.

Meanwhile Qualcomm is providing a new set of mobile-device chips to manufacturers for testing that will add more multimedia features to new smartphones.

This chipset family supports high-definition video recording and playback, enhanced graphics, and an overall chip design that is optimised for the web.

Qualcomm expects phone makers to have devices that use the MSM7×30 family of chipsets commercially available by the end of 2010.

The chipsets will allow phones to operate on the most advanced 3G wireless networks, such as those running the latest generation of HSPA and EV-DO .

They have been adapted for use on Android, Brew, Symbian, and Windows Mobile operating systems. The company says that applications the chips could enable include a 12-megapixel camera, 720p video recording, and 3D gaming.

Meanwhile Qualcomm has been telling the world plus dog that its 1Ghz Snapdragon ARM chip will ship in an upcoming Lenovo smartbook.

AT&T will be flogging the ARM powered Lenovo smartbook and there is some talk that ARM is also into the small form-factor laptop market and could give Intel’s Atom some serious competition.

The ARM Cortex-A8 core has 1GHz of processing power and is already being seen in a few smartphones.